In an exclusive interview with the Daily Record, the First Minister also spoke about the two child benefit cap, the NHS and how he nearly retired.

John Swinney has warned there is a “high” chance Nigel Farage will be the next Prime Minister as he warned about the rise of Reform UK.

The First Minister also said he would use a crunch Holyrood by-election in Hamilton to contrast the “hope” of the SNP with the division of Farage’s right wing party.

He also guaranteed that families affected by the two child benefit cap would receive special mitigation payments by April next year.

Swinney, who has been FM for nearly twelve months, made his comments in an interview with the Record’s political podcast show, Planet Holyrood.

He used the half hour interview to warn about the rise of Farage and his right wing, anti-immigration party.

Some polls have Reform UK in first place for Westminster and they are predicted to make a Holyrood breakthrough next year.

Reform are also tipped to be in the running in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election on June 5th, triggered by the death of Christina McKelvie.

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He said of the snap poll: “I don’t think by any stretch of the imagination is the by-election outcome clear. We will have to work incredibly hard in the SNP to retain the constituency. We have faced a tough time as a party.”

Asked if Reform are contenders in Hamilton, he said: “They could be. It’s early days in a by-election. I’ve got a job of work to do to say to people in Scotland that they’ve got to see through Farage because Farage is only using Scotland as a platform to spread the type of hate and division he spreads in other parts of the United Kingdom.”

He said Scots are disappointed with the Labour Government over policies like Winter Fuel Payment cuts and warned Reform are feeding off the anger.

“I want to make sure that Farage makes absolutely no headway in Scotland whatsoever,” he said.

“There was a lot of speculation that Farage was going to win a by-election in Glasgow in the local authority a few weeks ago, and it was the SNP that stopped him.”

“I am interested in bringing people together. I am interested in finding common cause and common purpose in Scottish society. Farage is the opposite of that.”

Asked if he feared Farage will be the next PM, he replied: “I think there is a high likelihood that could be the case, yes. And I worry about that very, very much,” he said.

Swinney has brought forward his legislation agenda in the wake of the chaos caused by President Trump’s tariffs.

He said his priorities will be attracting investment, boosting skills and creating a positive environment for business.

Despite his criticism of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s policies, he is supportive of the PM’s approach of not hitting out at Trump in public:

“We’ve got to proceed with an awful lot of care. So I understand why the Prime Minister is proceeding in the way that he is. I generally agree with the direction of travel that he is taking.”

Swinney has said his top priority is eradicating child poverty and the centrepiece is scrapping Westminster’s two child limit for benefits.

But the plan needs Westminster legislation and a data deal with the DWP, leading insiders to question whether payments will be paid out by April 2026.

The Record asked if he could guarantee this date for the payments.

“Yes,” he said. “The principle issue is about data and that work is underway, that cooperation is being taken forward to develop the systems.

“As things stand just now, I have got no issues with the flow of data. We are in dialogue with the UK Government about these questions.”

He was also asked about the struggling NHS, marked by long waits for treatment.

Labour will make the NHS central to their Holyrood election campaign, but Swinney denies the SNP deserves to lose on this issue alone.

He added: “The National Health Service performs very, very strongly. I want to see it performing ever stronger. I want to see it delivering more waiting times. I want to see it deliver better access to GPs.”

He also repeated his promise that Neil Gray would be kept as Health Secretary, but confirmed some ministerial changes would be made after McKelvie died and a Cabinet Secretary coming back from maternity leave:

“There will have to be some changes to the ministerial team but it’s not an issue that is preoccupying my thinking.”

Swinney left the Government when Humza Yousaf became First Minister and he says he may have quit as an MSP had Yousaf remained in post.

“I would have probably thought about it, yeah. I don’t think it is a secret that when I stood down from office in 2023, I stood down happily. I had been 16 years as a senior Government minister, so I had given a long length of time,” he said.

“It would have been a big wrench [to leave], but I think I would have been turning my mind to that. But just for the record, I am not turning my mind to that now.”

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